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Index Arbitrage Fair
Value
One of the most frequently
asked questions from viewers calling into CNBC's morning Squawk Box
is "What is Index Arbitrage Fair Value?". Every day, CNBC
gives viewers theoretical prices for index arbitrage, listing Index Arbitrage Fair Value,
along with certain levels on the index arbitrage premium (PREM)
that would theoretically cause index arbitrage buying or index arbitrage selling to hit
the stock market. In addition, every time that the NYSE puts collars
on computer assisted index arbitrage trading, CNBC shows a graphic on your television
screen that says CURBS
IN. So naturally
a lot of viewers call in asking about Index Arbitrage Fair Value, wanting to know exactly
what it is and what it means. According to Professor Hans
Stoll at Vanderbilt University, the formula for Fair Value is really very
simple. Of course that is easy for him to say, since he is one of
the world's leading academic authorities on equities markets, listed options,
index arbitrage, program trading, and a bunch of other stuff about stock markets.
Here is Professor Stoll's formula:
FV = S [1 + (I - D)]
-
Where "S" is the S&P
500 Stock Index. The ticker symbol is SPX and/or INX on most good data
feeds.
-
Where "I" is the amount
of Interest paid to your banker or broker to borrow the money to buy all of the stocks
in the S&P 500 Index. The interest is calculated based on a percentage
lending rate (R) from the current date (today) until the date that the
S&P Futures Contract expires in March, June, September, or December.
-
Where "D" is the amount
of Dividends paid to you from the companies that you own in the
S&P 500 Index that pay a dividend. The dividends are paid to you based on the record dates
for any stock in the Index that is announced between the current date
(today) and until the date that the S&P Futures Contract expires in March,
June, September, or December. This dividend income is expressed as a percentage rate too.
That's it. Very simple.
Index Arbitrage Fair Value is nothing more than...
...the
value of S&P 500 Index, plus the interest I pay my broker to buy all
of the stocks in it, minus all of the dividend checks I get from those
stocks.
Now that you know what FV is,
you can go on to learn exactly what it means and how it works. For example,
did you know that FV is basically irrelevant for most investors?
And that the theoretical levels announced on CNBC for index arbitrage buying and
index arbitrage selling are totally irrelevant in the real world of trading?
So what is important?
"Knowing
exactly when index arbitrage buying or selling will hit the markets today."
If you know that, then you
have an edge and are way ahead of everyone else in day trading for your
own account.
And that is exactly what
our Program Trading Research identifies
before the markets open every day. We already know the exact premium execution
level for index arbitrage buying or index arbitrage selling for today. That information
is available for you free, every day, as a public service. Simply click
here for today's actual index arbitrage execution levels. But
knowing in advance, what time these levels will hit is a little harder
for us to figure out. Therefore; we charge a fee for that information
which is included in all of our Program Trading Research
reports.
Now you can make our Program
Trading Research work for you with your day trading and investments.
Just click here for additional information on how
you can subscribe. And, if you really want to learn everything about index
arbitrage, FV, the premium (PREM), program buying, program
selling, program trading pattern recognition, and all you need to know
about computer assisted trading programs, then join us for one
of our Program Trading Seminars.
What! You didn't get
the same number that is on CNBC? That's because they subtract the
S&P 500 Stock Index price from the FV in the above formula; and, express
FV as the difference. Remember that once you figure out the
Fair Value for today, it doesn't change until tomorrow. And that it is a little less as we get closer to the S&P 500 Stock
Index Futures Contract expiration in March, June, September, or December. If you would like to see how it
declines over time, then click
here. Also
remember that FV and PREM are very different.
If you have comments or suggestions,
please email us at:
info@programtrading.com
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