The Sun-Jupiter Opposition

Over the past several weeks we have noticed an abundance of chatter about the so called "Sun-Jupiter Opposition" which is occurring this year on Wednesday, March 3, 2004.  Apparently, there are those who are claiming that when this situation is present one can assume that the ten days prior to the "SJ Opposition" day will exhibit an overall negative net loss in the markets; and/or if that prior ten days instead exhibit an overall positive net gain in the markets that the actual day of the SJ Opposition will then be negative.

You may be disappointed to hear this but after careful examination of the thirty-one statistical precedents of each and every one of these situations since 1970, we have found that there is really no factual evidence to support the significant overall negative net loss claims made by those pushing this "SJ Opposition" event as representing a major short selling opportunity in the markets.

Consider that in the thirty-one precedents of this "SJ Opposition" situation since 1970, sixteen times (51.6%) saw the prior ten days post an overall positive net gain in the markets; and, of the sixteen days of the actual "SJ Opposition" day, the market posted exactly 50/50 results.

And in the thirty-one precedents of this SJ Opposition situation since 1970, fifteen times (48.4%) saw the prior ten days post an overall negative net loss in the markets; and, of the fifteen days of the actual SJ Opposition day the market closed negative eight times, and positive seven times, or almost 50/50.

What this means to you?  That even though the most impressive examples of this SJ Opposition have occurred in the midst of significant down moves as in October of 1987 and last year in February of 2003, overall it is just not substantiated by hard core statistical facts as being predictable with any significant degree of probability as many have been claiming recently.

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