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What is NASDAQ Fair
Value?
One of the most
frequently asked questions from viewers calling into CNBC's morning Squawk
Box is "What is Fair Value?". Every day,
CNBC gives viewers theoretical prices for program trading, listing Fair Value,
along with certain levels on the premium (PREM)
that would theoretically cause program buying or program selling to hit the
stock market. In addition, every time that the NYSE puts collars on
computer assisted program trading, CNBC shows a graphic on your television
screen that says CURBS
IN. So naturally a lot of viewers call in
asking about Fair Value, wanting to know exactly what it is and what it means.
According to Professor Hans Stoll at Vanderbilt University, the formula for Fair
Value is really very simple. Of course that is easy for him to say, since
he is one of the world's leading academic authorities on equities markets,
listed options, program trading, and a bunch of other stuff about stock markets.
Here is Professor Stoll's formula:
FV = N [1 + (I -
D)]
-
Where "N" is the NDX 100
Stock Index. The ticker symbol is NDX on most good data
feeds.
-
Where "I" is the amount of Interest
paid to your banker or broker to borrow the money to buy all of the
stocks in the NDX 100 Index. The interest is calculated based on a
percentage lending rate (R) from the current date (today) until the date
that the ND Futures Contract expires in March, June, September, or
December.
-
Where "D" is the amount of Dividends
paid to you from the companies that you own in the NDX 100 Index that
pay a dividend. The dividends are paid to you based on the record
dates for any stock in the Index that is announced between the current
date (today) and until the date that the ND Futures Contract expires in
March, June, September, or December. This dividend income is expressed
as a percentage rate too.
That's it. Very
simple. FV is nothing more than...
...the value
of NDX 100 Index, plus the interest I pay my broker to buy all of the stocks
in it, minus all of the dividend checks I get from those stocks.
Now that you know what
FV is, you can go on to learn exactly what it means and how it works. For
example, did you know that FV is basically irrelevant for most investors?
And that the theoretical levels announced on CNBC for program buying and program
selling are totally irrelevant in the real world of trading? So what is
important?
"Knowing
exactly when program buying or program selling will hit the markets today."
If you know that, then
you have an edge and are way ahead of everyone else in day trading for your own
NASDAQ account.
And that is exactly
what our Program Trading Research identifies
before the markets open every day. We already know the exact premium execution
level for program buying or program selling for today. That information is
available for you free, every day, as a public service. Simply click
here for today's actual program trading execution levels. But
knowing in advance, what time these levels will hit is a little harder for us to
figure out. Therefore; we charge a fee for that information which is included in
all of our Program Trading Research reports.
Now you can make our Program
Trading Research work for you with your day trading and investments.
Just click here for additional information on how you
can subscribe. And, if you really want to learn everything about FV, the
premium (PREM), program buying, program selling,
program trading pattern recognition, and all you need to know about computer
assisted trading programs, then join us for one of our Program
Trading Seminars.
What! You didn't
get the same number that is on CNBC? That's because they subtract the NDX
100 Stock Index price from the FV in the above formula; and, express FV as the
difference. Remember that once you figure out the Fair Value for
today, it doesn't change until tomorrow. And that every day it is a little
less as we get closer to the ND Futures Contract expiration in March, June,
September, or December. If you would like to see how it declines each day,
then click
here. Also remember that
FV and PREM are very different.
If you have comments or suggestions,
please email us at:
info@programtrading.com
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